GPT‑6 is coming? OpenAI signs a “betting deal” to reach $5 trillion market value in 15 years

GPT‑6 is coming? OpenAI signs a “betting deal” to reach $5 trillion market value in 15 years

Breakup with Microsoft, AGI Progress, and Product Matrix — OpenAI Hits Full Speed

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OpenAI has completed a major corporate restructuring and secured a $500 billion valuation, resolving its long-standing tension between for-profit and non-profit models. This landmark move provides a clear and sustainable growth path for the company.

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New Structure: Two Core Entities

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OpenAI now consists of:

  • OpenAI Foundation — A non-profit entity.
  • OpenAI Group PBC — A public-benefit corporation handling commercial operations.

OpenAI Foundation:

  • Holds shares in OpenAI Group.
  • Allocates ownership proportionally to shareholders.
  • Invests $25 billion into AI safety and AI infrastructure research.

OpenAI Group PBC:

  • Focuses on fundraising and commercialization.
  • Covers AI R&D, talent, and infrastructure deployment costs.

Both entities share the same mission: ensuring AI benefits all humanity.

Shareholding after restructuring:

  • OpenAI Foundation: 26% (~$130 billion value).
  • Microsoft: 27%.
  • Employees & investors: 47%.
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OpenAI shareholder distribution — Source: GeekPark

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01 — Three Strategic Moves That Solved the Restructuring Dilemma

1. Future Warrant for the Foundation

  • The Foundation gains extra shares if OpenAI Group’s valuation hits $5 trillion in 15 years.
  • This performance-based agreement keeps investors motivated without diluting current shares.
  • Ensures commercial success directly funds the nonprofit mission.

2. Simplified Share Structure

  • All shareholders now hold traditional stock.
  • Removes restrictions on investment returns.
  • Makes fundraising easier and sets the stage for a potential IPO.

3. Microsoft Cooperation Reset

Microsoft outlined changes in how they will collaborate with OpenAI:

  • Decoupling: Both can work with other partners independently.
  • Collaboration: Microsoft remains a key model partner until at least 2032. Consumer hardware is excluded from Microsoft IP rights. OpenAI commits to an additional $250B Azure purchase — but Microsoft loses priority computing provider status.
  • Timeline: Revenue-sharing continues until OpenAI reaches the “AGI moment.”

Microsoft’s Position:

With investments < $15B, Microsoft gained ~10x capital return, strengthened its cloud business, and secured OpenAI as a major long-term client.

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Insight: This restructuring aligns values, incentives, and governance.

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02 — What's Next for OpenAI?

In a 90-minute livestream, CEO Sam Altman laid out OpenAI’s next steps.

Product Matrix: Becoming a Platform

  • From AI assistants inside ChatGPT to building an AI Cloud platform.
  • Goal: Let others build products/services on top of OpenAI tech.
  • Bill Gates’ principle: A platform is proven when builders create more value than the platform owner.
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Principles for AI platforms:

  • User Freedom: Anyone should use AI to meet their needs.
  • Privacy Protection: AI will access deeply personal data — requiring strong technical safeguards.
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Security Measures:

  • Building an AI Resilience Layer to stop AI-generated viruses.
  • Coordinated multi-model defense ecosystem.

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Similar ecosystem tools:

AiToEarn enables AI creators to publish & monetize across multiple platforms with built-in analytics and AI model rankings.

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Why Invest $25B in AI Healthcare & Infrastructure?

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Sam Altman’s timeline:

  • Small breakthroughs: By 2026.
  • Medium/major breakthroughs: Possible by 2028.

AI Infrastructure Progress

  • Compute cost remains high — even with strong progress.
  • Cooperation with AMD, Broadcom, Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Oracle, SoftBank to reduce costs.
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Governance Structure

  • OpenAI Foundation Board Members: Bret Taylor (Chair), Adam D'Angelo, Dr. Sue Desmond-Hellmann, Dr. Zico Kolter, Gen. Paul M. Nakasone, Adebayo Ogunlesi, Nicole Seligman, Larry Summers, and Sam Altman.
  • Foundation appoints all OpenAI Group board members.
  • Safety and Security Committee (SSC) oversees safety practices.

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03 — Viewer Q&A Highlights: GPT‑6, AGI, and Revenue

GPT‑6 Timeline:

  • Current focus: integration, interface, IP issues.
  • GPT‑5 boosted prediction ability — GPT‑6 could be released in 2–5 years, possibly with major upgrades.

AGI Progress:

  • No clear path yet.
  • Aim: Autonomous large-scale research projects within a year.
  • Five years after ChatGPT launch — an AI capable of human-level research.

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Human–AI Alignment:

  • Both cognitive and value alignment are key.
  • OpenAI is experimenting with less supervision on internal reasoning during training to preserve authenticity.

Revenue Goals:

  • Target: Trillion-dollar range.
  • Multiple streams: subscriptions, hardware, and science-driven products.

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Conclusion

OpenAI’s restructuring has:

  • Unified profit & mission priorities.
  • Strengthened governance.
  • Opened the door for future platform expansion and AGI research.

A new chapter is beginning — both for OpenAI, and for creators in the global AI ecosystem.

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Header image: OpenAI official site

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Geek Q

What’s your view on OpenAI's recent restructuring?

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