Ilya: The Age of Scaling Is Over, the Age of Research Has Begun

# Ilya Sutskever on AI, Generalization, and the Future of Research

**Ilya Sutskever**, cofounder of OpenAI and now founder of **SSI (Safe Superintelligence)**, has largely stayed out of the public eye for over a year. Since leaving OpenAI after internal disputes and launching SSI, he’s made few public appearances.  

Recently, Ilya joined **Dwarkesh Patel** for a **90-minute, content-rich conversation**:  
🎧 Watch here → [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR20FWCCjAs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR20FWCCjAs)

Unlike Sam Altman’s polished product pitches, Ilya’s interviews are loaded with **deep technical insights** — ideas that could shape future AI research and investment strategies. Let’s break down the most important themes.

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## 1. Benchmarks vs. Real-World Performance

**Key Problem:** Current AI models score extremely well on standardized benchmarks but often stumble in practical coding tasks.  

**Example:**  
- Ask an AI to fix Bug A — it introduces Bug B.  
- Point out Bug B — it apologizes and reverts to Bug A.  
- This *ping-pong effect* suggests shallow adaptation.

**Ilya’s Analogy:**  
Two students:  
1. **The Grinder** — 10,000 hours of competition problem practice, memorizes all algorithm templates.  
2. **The Casual Learner** — 100 hours of study, does well enough, and remains versatile.  

In reality, the casual learner may enjoy a more successful *career* because of broader adaptability. Current AI models are **more extreme than The Grinder**, overfitted to benchmarks and lacking generalization.

> **Lesson:** Mastery is not generalization. Specialization to the point of rigidity blocks transfer across domains.

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## 2. Human Reward Hacking — Not AI’s Fault

Ilya suggests **the real “reward hackers” are human researchers**.  

- **Pretraining Era:** Big data ingestion without strong filtering.  
- **RL Era:** Selecting curated environments, optimizing for benchmarks.  

This incentivizes models to ace test metrics but miss real-world utility — essentially a human-driven overfitting loop.

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## 3. Emotions as a Learning Accelerator

**Case Study:** A brain injury removed a man’s ability to feel emotions.  
- He could solve IQ tests but life decisions spiraled into dysfunction.  

**Insight:** Emotions act as a **built-in value function** — guiding actions before outcomes are known.  

**In RL terms:**
- Value functions give early reward estimates.  
- Like GPS recalculating after a wrong turn, emotions guide humans away from unproductive paths quickly.

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## 4. End of the Scaling Era → Start of the Research Era

### Timeline:
- **2012–2020:** Experimental freedom; diverse ideas.  
- **2020 Onwards:** Scaling laws discovered; bigger models = better results.  

Scaling was **low-risk**, highly predictable — perfect for corporate investment, but stifled innovation.  
Now, **pretraining data is finite**. Scaling alone won’t deliver qualitative leaps.

> Industry has plateaued — **we must rethink approaches, not just scale compute**.

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## 5. Generalization — The Core Challenge

**Current reality:** Models require huge datasets for one task and transfer poorly to new ones.  

**Humans:**  
- Learn to drive in ~10 hours.  
- Adapt to tasks never faced in evolutionary history (e.g., programming).  

Ilya hints solutions will aim for **fast, stable, human-like generalization** — possibly requiring a paradigm shift in architecture.

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## 6. Rethinking AGI: A Learner, Not a Finished Product

AGI historically meant “can do anything.”  
But humans don’t start fully skilled — they **learn quickly**.

**Ilya’s Vision:**  
AGI should mirror humans — able to **rapidly acquire skills** on demand, not preloaded with all knowledge.

---

## 7. Self-Learning AI: Potential & Risks

**Fast learning AI** could:
- Achieve human-level work in weeks vs. months.  
- Merge knowledge across instances — humans cannot do this.  

SSI’s initial plan: jump straight to superintelligence, no intermediate products.  
Current view: **gradual release is crucial**, so society can adapt.

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## 8. Why Gradual Deployment Matters

We struggle to imagine non-existent technology realistically.  
Seeing AI’s growing power firsthand will:
- Prompt serious regulation discussion.  
- Improve public and industrial safety cooperation.

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## 9. SSI’s Approach: Different Paths, Moderate Compute

- Raised **$3B** — modest compared to Big Tech’s tens of billions.  
- Focused on **generalization breakthroughs**, not maximum compute.  
- Research bottleneck = **Ideas**, not GPUs.  

**Timeline for human-level learning:** 5–20 years.

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## 10. Alignment: Caring About Sentient Beings

**Goal:** Superintelligence that cares for all sentient beings — possibly simpler than targeting human-only empathy.  

**Concern:** If most sentient beings are AIs, humans risk becoming a minority.

---

## 11. How to Hard-Code Advanced Desires

Evolution wired humans to care about complex social cues.  
This process — embedding high-level goals into cognition — remains mysterious, yet inspiring for AI alignment challenges.

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## 12. “Research Taste” — Selecting the Right Problems

Ilya’s filter: **Seek Beauty**  
- **Simplicity**  
- **Elegance**  
- **Biological Inspiration**

This aesthetic conviction sustains research through setbacks — differentiating top researchers from those led solely by immediate results.

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## Practical Connection: AI in the Creator Economy

Platforms like [AiToEarn官网](https://aitoearn.ai/) demonstrate how to **apply AI effectively in real-world contexts** without falling into the “benchmark trap.”  

**AiToEarn Highlights:**
- Open-source global AI content monetization.
- Tools for AI generation, cross-platform publishing, analytics, and [AI模型排名](https://rank.aitoearn.ai).
- Publish across Douyin, Kwai, WeChat, Bilibili, Xiaohongshu, Instagram, LinkedIn, YouTube, and X.

**Docs:** [AiToEarn文档](https://docs.aitoearn.ai)  
**Source:** [AiToEarn开源地址](https://github.com/yikart/AiToEarn)

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## Final Takeaway

Ilya’s insights point to a **transition era in AI**:  
- **From scaling to research**  
- **From benchmarks to generalization**  
- **From finished products to fast learners**

Whether in cutting-edge AI labs or global creator platforms, the unifying principle is clear: **align innovation with adaptability and human context**.

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