OpenAI Finally Realizes It Can’t Achieve AGI with Microsoft Alone

OpenAI Finally Realizes It Can’t Achieve AGI with Microsoft Alone
# OpenAI–Microsoft Honeymoon Ends: AWS Steps In

**Date:** 2025‑11‑11 10:36 Beijing  

![image](https://blog.aitoearn.ai/content/images/2025/11/img_001-264.jpg)  

The five-year “honeymoon” between **Sam Altman** (OpenAI) and **Satya Nadella** (Microsoft) is showing clear signs of fracture.

![image](https://blog.aitoearn.ai/content/images/2025/11/img_002-252.jpg)  

---

## Overview of the Breakup

On **November 3, 2025**, OpenAI and **Amazon Web Services (AWS)** announced a **multi-year strategic cooperation** worth about **$38 billion**.  

Key agreement terms:

- **Compute resources via AWS**: Hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs, scalable to millions of CPUs.
- **Completion target**: End of 2026.

This came just days after the **October 28 “final framework agreement”** between OpenAI and Microsoft, which:

- **Revoked** Microsoft’s *Right of First Refusal (ROFR)* on OpenAI compute purchases.
- Reduced Microsoft’s **stake to 27%**.
- Signaled OpenAI’s shift toward **autonomous, diversified cloud partnerships**.

---

## OpenAI’s Aggressive Expansion Goals

- **Planned investment**: $1.4 trillion in future compute infrastructure to achieve AGI.
- **Corporate restructuring**: From a constrained nonprofit model to a **for‑profit Public Benefit Corporation**, aiming for funding and potential IPO.
- **Current valuation**: $500 billion; IPO target in 2026 with potential to reach **$1 trillion**.

Five days after restructuring, OpenAI signed with AWS, triggering:

- **Amazon stock jump**: +4% market value (~$100 billion).
- Removal of Microsoft’s exclusive delivery advantage in GPT cloud services.

For OpenAI, the AWS deal:
- Breaks dependency on Microsoft Azure.
- Diversifies compute sources.
- Accelerates relief of computational bottlenecks.

---

## 1. How OpenAI Loosened Microsoft’s Grip

### Brewing Tensions Since 2024
- Microsoft was **exclusive cloud provider** for OpenAI.
- Azure capacity **couldn’t keep up with exponential demand** from GPT model training.
- Risk of “falling behind” due to compute shortages.

### Altman’s Public Pressure Campaign
- Summer 2024: Altman publicly cited Azure’s delays as the reason GPT‑5 was not released earlier.
- Investigations from EC and FTC into Microsoft’s control.
- Criticism over Microsoft data center delays (e.g., **Wisconsin concrete issue**).

### Microsoft’s Reluctance
- CFO Amy Hood: warned against overbuilding.
- **January 20, 2025** partnership change: ROFR replaced, OpenAI allowed to co‑build data centers with others.

### Key Milestones (2025)
- **Jan**: Launch of *“Stargate”* project with SoftBank & Oracle — $500 billion investment in global AI data centers.
- **Mar**: Texas data center proposal.
- **Jul**: Oracle GPU deal (4.5 GW).
- **Oct**: AMD GPU supply deal (6 GW), +5 global AI data center sites.

---

**Industry context:**  
Leading AI firms are decentralizing infrastructure dependencies and securing massive compute pools. Platforms like [AiToEarn官网](https://aitoearn.ai) showcase how open‑source ecosystems connect AI generation, cross-platform publishing, and analytics — helping creators monetize diversified AI outputs efficiently.

---

## 2. Microsoft’s Compute Crisis Root Cause: *Electricity*

### Ongoing Capacity Shortages
- Azure forecasts repeatedly delayed:
  - Jan 2025: equilibrium by June.
  - Apr 2025: pushed to Q4.
  - Oct 2025: pushed to mid‑2026.

- **$3.3 billion** purchase of capacity from competitor **Nebius** to free Azure for external enterprise clients.

### Physical Limitations
- North Virginia & Texas Azure regions saturated (DCPulse).
- Restricted new subscriptions; rerouting workloads.

### Strategic Delays
- Mar–Apr 2025: canceled/postponed 2 GW data center projects.

### Nadella’s Admission
> “The biggest problem is not chips, but insufficient **power supply** for data centers.”

### U.S. Energy Challenges
- 2025: +83 TWh electricity demand surge.
- Transmission infrastructure lagging.
- Bloom Energy forecast: 35 GW shortage by 2030.
- Deloitte: AI data center demand may grow 30x by 2035.

---

## 3. AWS Bets on Diversity — Emerges as Key Winner

### Why AWS and OpenAI Align
- AWS saw enterprises desire **model diversity**.
- **Amazon Bedrock** launch (Apr 2023): marketplace for multiple AI models.
- $4 billion stake in Anthropic + development of Nova models.

### Microsoft’s Exclusive Advantage Erodes
- 2022–2023: Microsoft exclusive sales of OpenAI models drove Azure growth (+31% Q1 2023).
- Loosening of OpenAI ties in 2025 limits Azure’s “uniqueness” in AI cloud.

---

**Parallels for AI creators:**  
As AWS champions model diversity, creators benefit from avoiding vendor lock‑in. Platforms like [AiToEarn官网](https://aitoearn.ai/) integrate AI generation, cross‑platform publishing (Douyin, Kwai, WeChat, Bilibili, Xiaohongshu, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Threads, YouTube, Pinterest, X/Twitter), analytics, and [AI模型排名](https://rank.aitoearn.ai) to maintain independence.

---

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![image](https://blog.aitoearn.ai/content/images/2025/11/img_003-235.jpg)  

---

## Final Takeaway

The Microsoft–OpenAI split reflects a **broader industry imperative**:  
Diversification of compute partners, mitigation of infrastructure bottlenecks, and alignment with scalable, multi‑model strategies.

**For enterprises and creators alike**, independence and cross‑platform agility are vital — whether in cloud computing or AI‑driven content monetization.

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