The Capital Market Is Wary of Designer Toys
Why Has No “Disney” Emerged in the Designer Toy Industry Yet?
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Recent Market Moves
- TOP TOY has officially filed for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
- July 2025: Series A funding led by Temasek raised USD 59.43M at a valuation of USD 1.3B (~HKD 10.2B).
- In comparison, POP MART once hit a HKD 400B market cap.
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POP MART’s Q3 2025 Earnings Snapshot
- Revenue up 245%–250% YoY.
- Overseas growth: 365%–370% YoY.
- Share price fell 8.08% on announcement day and continued for 5 days.
- October 23: Largest single-day drop since April (-9%).
- Market cap shrank to HKD 312.1B within two months.
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Contradiction in the Market
- Consumers: New releases in secondary markets sell out instantly; resale prices often multiple times retail.
- Capital Markets: Leading firms post strong earnings but face stock declines; new IPOs struggle to gain high valuations.
- Others: CARD游 and 52TOYS remain at prospectus stage.
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1. What Is the Capital Market Worried About?
Growth Data (China)
From 2020–2024: RMB 22.9B → RMB 76.3B (CAGR 35.1%)
2025E: RMB 87.7B.
Drivers:
- Gen Z dominance (>40% market share, “self-exclusive” consumption habits).
- Category diversification — blind boxes (28%), plush toys (+1289% in 2024 revenue via LABUBU).
- Wider age appeal — age 30–45 spends 40% more per order than Gen Z.
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Capital’s Cooling Sentiment
- Heavy reliance on short-lifecycle IPs due to emotional consumption trends.
- Uncertainty in IP longevity: Trends change quickly; high aesthetic fatigue risk.
Case Study:
- In POP MART’s H1 2025 proprietary products, THE MONSTERS delivered RMB 4.814B revenue.
- Premium willingness for top IPs declined from 3–5× retail → <1.5×.
- LABUBU secondary-market hype cooled drastically within weeks.
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2. Rising New Brands Splitting the Market
Competitive Landscape — Blind Box Industry Tiers
- First Tier: POP MART — dominant IPs (MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, THE MONSTERS).
- Second Tier: MINISO (TOP TOY).
- Third Tier: Alpha Group, Gao Le Shares, Yuanlong Yatu, Le Zi Tiancheng Culture.
Third-tier brands face:
- IP barriers
- Distribution disadvantages
- → Financing enthusiasm cooled; only two primary market financing rounds in 2024.
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3. Global Expansion: Shine & Shadows
H1 2025 Overseas Revenue (POP MART):
- Asia-Pacific: RMB 2.85B (+257.8% YoY)
- Americas: RMB 2.26B (+1142.3% YoY)
- Europe & others: RMB 480M (+729.2% YoY)
Overseas revenue = 40% of POP MART’s total.
TOP TOY overseas share grew from 0.6% (2024-end) → 3.9% (H1 2025).
Risk: Most brands replicate domestic playbook abroad without deep local cultural integration.
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4. High Gross Margins — Double-Edged Sword?
Margin Trends
- POP MART: 57.5% (2022) → 66.8% (2024) → 70.3% (H1 2025)
- Kayou: 71.3% (2024)
- TOP TOY: ~20–32% (2022–2024)
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Why so high?
- IP premium potential via emotional resonance & scarcity.
- Low material costs (most cost in IP licensing).
- Full supply chain control by leading brands.
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Structural Weakness:
- TOP TOY heavy reliance on licensed IPs (<0.4% revenue from proprietary IP in 2024).
- Licensing fees rising: RMB 178M (2022) → RMB 421M (2024).
- POP MART avoids licensing cost, but faces “blockbuster external IP” threats (e.g., Nezha 2 at RMB 300M sales in one month).
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5. Why Hasn't a “Disney” Emerged Yet?
Disney at a Glance:
- Market cap: USD 211.5B (4× POP MART)
- H1 2025 revenue: USD 47.2B (~RMB 338B)
- Net profit: RMB 61.1B (13× POP MART’s)
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Disney’s Evergreen “Story-IP-Merchandise” Loop
- Immersive experiences: resorts, parks — 59%+ profits.
- Merchandise matrix: 22,000 SKUs integrate IP into daily life.
- Streaming platforms: incubate and monetize IP direct-to-consumer.
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Designer Toy Bottleneck:
- Most brands lack narrative depth; focus on aesthetics + marketing traffic.
- POP MART exploring animation (Labubu and Friends) but retail sales remain ≈95% of revenue.
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Global Context:
- China IP consumption penetration: ~53–56%
- Japan: 11× higher
- US: 50× higher
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6. Conclusion — Moving from Traffic to Story
In today’s competitive landscape, deep narrative building and cultural resonance are key to sustaining IP value.
Platforms like AiToEarn官网 offer:
- AI-generated content creation
- Cross-platform publishing (Douyin, Kwai, WeChat, Bilibili, Xiaohongshu, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Threads, YouTube, Pinterest, X)
- Performance analytics & AI model ranking
For designer toy brands, integrating such tech-driven storytelling tools could help bridge the gap toward a “Disney-like” unfading IP ecosystem.
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Final Note:
To truly become the “Disney” of designer toys, brands must evolve beyond short-term hype to create multi-generational IP universes with storytelling, immersive experiences, and diversified monetization channels. AI-powered content ecosystems may well be part of that future.
